Minnesota Could Jail Prediction Market Operators Under New Bill
A new bipartisan bill in Minnesota is arguably the most restrictive proposal in the U.S. to date regarding prediction markets. Rather than regulate prediction markets, Minnesota would criminalize them.
In December, bill sponsor Sen. John Marty (40, DFL) told GamblingHarm.org that a bill was in the works. “We must stop prediction markets from taking over here if the federal courts won’t stop them,” Marty said. “Prediction market sports betting is illegal and clearly gambling.”
Unlike similar legislation introduced in Iowa and New York, Senate File 4511—posted on March 13—would treat prediction markets as a criminal matter rather than a civil one.
The federal government has drawn controversy over its regulation of prediction markets, platforms that enable peer-to-peer bets on sports and other real-world events.
Targeting MN Prediction Market Ecosystem
Specifically, the Minnesota bill would make operating a prediction market a felony and would also criminalize certain forms of betting advertising and promotion.
Minnesota would make some ads for prohibited prediction-market activity a felony if they run during certain time windows, reach sizable under-21 audiences, falsely imply legality, or appear on public property or near schools and playgrounds.
It also targets businesses and services that help facilitate prediction markets, such as companies that handle payments or assist with online promotion.
For example, after a Minnesota attorney general cease-and-desist letter, the state could hit payment processors, geolocation providers, gambling content suppliers, platform providers, and media affiliates with felony charges.
The bill didn’t define a media affiliate. It is typically a website that covers prediction markets and earns money by directing users to register and deposit with betting platforms.
Broad Category Prohibition
Minnesota’s prediction market bill would cover betting markets tied to sports, casino-style gambling, people, elections, catastrophes, and death.
Polymarket, a leading prediction market, has taken bets on events related to mass shootings.
The Minnesota bill has a broader scope than some other state bills, which focus only on sports, politics, or so-called catastrophic events.
To date, Minnesota has not legalized any form of online sports betting or online casino gambling.
Bad Actor Clause?
The Minnesota prediction market bill would impose a long-term licensing penalty on prediction market operators.
In industry terms, this is similar to a “bad actor clause.” It refers to penalizing companies that operated in the market prior to formal legalization and regulation.
Traditional online sports betting operators such as DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics offer prediction market products in Minnesota.
Anyone convicted under Minnesota’s new provision could be barred from receiving a gambling-related state license for 10 years.
Next Steps for MN Prediction Market Bill
The bill was referred to the Senate Judiciary and Public Safety Committee. The committee has not yet scheduled a hearing on the bill.
Sponsors are:
- Senator John Marty (40, DFL)
- Senator Jordan Rasmusson (09, R)
- Senator Mary K. Kunesh (39, DFL)
- Senator Erin K. Maye Quade (56, DFL)
- Senator Matt D. Klein (53, DFL)
Minnesota’s 2026 legislative session ends in mid-May, giving the prediction market bill about two months for passage.
The post Minnesota Could Jail Prediction Market Operators Under New Bill appeared first on GamblingHarm.org.